tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post3592865979600331695..comments2024-02-26T06:46:53.171-05:00Comments on Rajiv Sethi: Police Use of Force: Notes on a StudyRajivhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13667685126282705505noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-22425952589178328012017-05-06T17:20:00.180-04:002017-05-06T17:20:00.180-04:00Not understanding how Krzys was being stubborn her...Not understanding how Krzys was being stubborn here. I've since done my analysis of Fryer's use-of-force data to show how academic conclusions really don't add up to much "on the ground." Or as I wrote in August 2016 about Fryer's conclusions on lethal use of force, "People still freaked out, specifically about the evidence dealing with police shootings — it went directly against the massively popular narrative that began after Trayvon Martin’s death and erupted in Ferguson, Missouri. Fryer himself tried to answer reader questions. Though, it doesn’t take a “genius” to conclude for the past few years that if a demographic that is 25% of those being killed by police is also 27% of the those arrested (36% for violent crimes), and 43% of the persons killing cops, then there might very well not be nationwide systemic racial bias against that demographic."<br /><br />But we can keep on using a obfuscating gender argument, which I'm not sure that has to do with anything. Yes, the data has to be looked at cautiously and carefully; but the big round numbers kinda say the obvious: Policing isn't racially biased when it comes to lethal use of force. <br /><br />https://medium.com/@agent.orange.chicago/how-roland-fryers-controversial-study-on-racial-bias-by-police-actually-shows-negligible-bias-ea3a8b1fd293<br /><br />Noted points on non-lethal Use of Force that "proves" disparities that Fryer reported:<br />1. Prevention the rate of police killings per million for African Americans has fallen by 70 percent over the last four decades but the rate remains as high or higher for whites, Latinos and Asians. <br /><br />2. This is the “next step” I’m doing with Fryer’s data published in The National Bureau of Economic Research as translated by the New York Times. Do the simple math on any interaction with New York City police (see graphic above) during the controversial “stop-and-frisk” decade and you get nearly the same percentage for black and white citizens:<br />* 1 out of every 64 blacks stopped will have a weapon DRAWN on them (1.5 % of encounters)<br />* 1 out of every 77 whites stopped will have a weapon DRAWN on them (1.2 % of encounters)<br />Or:<br />* 1 out of every 185 blacks stopped will have a weapon POINTED at them (.5% of encounters)<br />* 1 out of every 232 whites stopped will have a weapon POINTED at them (.4% of encounters)organica design chicagohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18196933835426499235noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-18782367399374880952016-07-21T21:30:55.492-04:002016-07-21T21:30:55.492-04:00JTown, your point number 2, that blacks are more l...JTown, your point number 2, that blacks are more likely to get pulled over, illustrates a possible serious flaw in the methodology used. If Fryer looked at the percentage of police stops that resulted in police shootings, then it's quite relevant that blacks are pulled over far more than whites for frivolous reasons. (For example, one police chief admitted that in a population that was 40% black, all 63 people stopped for seatbelt violations that year were blacks.) Since the police rarely stop whites for trivial violations, the whites stopped are far more likely to be serious criminals, and therefore more likely to get shot. If all of the armed and dangerous whites driving down the street were pulled over and shot (3 out of 3, say), and all the armed and dangerous blacks were pulled over and shot (4 out of 4, say), and 2 of the 63 black seatbelt violators were shot (by mistake, you've seen the videos, so you know it happens), then Fryer would report that a far greater percent of the whites THAT WERE PULLED OVER were shot (3 out of 3, 100%, in this made-up case) than the percent of blacks that were pulled over that were shot (6 out of 67, 9%) since all of the trivial stops were of blacks, and they rarely (but not never) ended in shootings. These numbers don't tell us anything.<br /><br />The numbers you want are the percent of white citizens who were shot by police in a time period vs the percent of black citizens who were shot. Or, you could look at white/black males that were shot, or drivers, or pedestrians, but NOT the % of white and black people PULLED OVER who were shot.John Whitbeckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18286076346814391508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-46260935355675473252016-07-21T21:30:11.548-04:002016-07-21T21:30:11.548-04:00JTown, your point number 2, that blacks are more l...JTown, your point number 2, that blacks are more likely to get pulled over, illustrates a possible serious flaw in the methodology used. If Fryer looked at the percentage of police stops that resulted in police shootings, then it's quite relevant that blacks are pulled over far more than whites for frivolous reasons. (For example, one police chief admitted that in a population that was 40% black, all 63 people stopped for seatbelt violations that year were blacks.) Since the police rarely stop whites for trivial violations, the whites stopped are far more likely to be serious criminals, and therefore more likely to get shot. If all of the armed and dangerous whites driving down the street were pulled over and shot (3 out of 3, say), and all the armed and dangerous blacks were pulled over and shot (4 out of 4, say), and 2 of the 63 black seatbelt violators were shot (by mistake, you've seen the videos, so you know it happens), then Fryer would report that a far greater percent of the whites THAT WERE PULLED OVER were shot (3 out of 3, 100%, in this made-up case) than the percent of blacks that were pulled over that were shot (6 out of 67, 9%) since all of the trivial stops were of blacks, and they rarely (but not never) ended in shootings. These numbers don't tell us anything.<br /><br />The numbers you want are the percent of white citizens who were shot by police in a time period vs the percent of black citizens who were shot. Or, you could look at white/black males that were shot, or drivers, or pedestrians, but NOT the % of white and black people PULLED OVER who were shot. John Whitbeckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18286076346814391508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-47535112805648664472016-07-15T08:01:04.835-04:002016-07-15T08:01:04.835-04:00Thanks. Fryer's data capture methodology was a...Thanks. Fryer's data capture methodology was actually (in my opinion) the most important part of the work. Non-police scientists attempting to code police narratives have fallen victim repeatedly to what I call "Starsky & Hutch Effect": Having grown up on TV shows and movies, we believe truly we understand policing, when what we really understand is policing on cop shows (https://nselby.github.io/Are-You-Certain/). As you say, law enforcement data is hard to get but, speaking as a police detective and subject matter expert in law enforcement data I will say that while I agree that video isn't "evidence," it is rather interesting anecdotal information. Your comment about Walter Scott and Michael Slager notwithstanding, so much in law enforcement is highly nuanced that one cannot rely on video to be consistently valuable, or at least consistently valuable in a consistent manner. As I wrote (http://goo.gl/Gdz1Sc) with Rachel Levinson-Waldman of The Brennan Center, a pair of videos (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gu0wMBJn-r8) from a Texas police department illustrates the point neatly. The first, from a dash-cam, appears to show an officer being overly aggressive with a driver he had pulled over. The second, from the officer’s body camera, shows the driver reaching towards a gun on the seat. There are many examples of this. <br /><br />Also it must be clear that video is not widespread - I have seen many estimates. My research (http://amzn.to/1q0pkXx) shows video was available only in 26 percent of the cases in which an unarmed person died after an encounter with police. In two 2015 cases, eyewitness-shot video was crucial in showing that officers had lied to investigators. In two other cases, video exonerated officers. But in all four of these cases, the video was taken by bystanders or surveillance cameras, not by police-operated video (https://goo.gl/fYsryR). There's just not enough.<br /><br />Sadly, the best and most consistent data we have around the country is 911 call data, which is only evidence that someone is saying that a crime is in progress. The data is "best" for the simple reasons that 911 call-taker/dispatcher training is consistent across the country and asks consistent questions about suspect and caller (see, eg, https://fortress.wa.gov/cjtc/www/images/training/T1-%20Combined%202011%20Student%20Resource%20Guide%20010914.pdf). This allows us to gather, from across the country, 911 call logs that may be searched for consistently REQUESTED (not granted) information about the race, gender, height, weight, presence of a weapon, drugs, apparent mental state and other crucial questions about crime suspects as reported to police by the community. When compared to those actually confronted by police, we were able to conclude that in the 153 cases in which unarmed civilians died after confrontations with police in 2015, the majority of the decedents were NOT selected by the police but rather by the community (there were no cases of false identification).<br /><br />The good part of Fryer's paper and your blog post is the discussion of police data. Typically it is filthy, uncoded, duplicative, based on police narratives that are themselves somewhat suspect, with different data types arbitrarily segregated into different data stores (usually each with its own proprietary, often non-relational, data format) designed in the early 1990s without any capacity to aggregate, let alone clean, de-duplicate and normalize, and forgetting completely the ability to mine. <br /><br />I would like to agree that Fryer's "surprise" notwithstanding there are serious problems with his conclusions as stated, but that the patterns he observes do have value - and his method of translating and coding police narratives, while simple and relatively common in other areas, is instructive to non-police researchers looking at police data. <br /><br />Police data is, like, hard. Nick Selbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05433914357027454099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-27418602911069251892016-07-14T20:37:26.396-04:002016-07-14T20:37:26.396-04:00I'm not a statistician, but the fact that blac...I'm not a statistician, but the fact that black people are more likely to experience non-lethal force but then have that gap vanish for lethal force -- to me, that seemed to suggest that black people may be better at deescalating police encounters. This makes sense to me, considering:<br /><br />1. Black parents give "the talk" about dealing with police more than white parents, so black people get more education on how to deal with police safely.<br />2. Black people are more likely to be pulled over, stopped and frisked, searched, etc -- so they get more real world practice with dealing with police safely. <br /><br />Do you think that idea might have any merit? JTownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04424322313242366105noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-71619769252605633412016-07-14T13:15:34.899-04:002016-07-14T13:15:34.899-04:00http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas...http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/McClelland-presided-over-culture-change-at-HPD-6845901.php <br /><br />I found an article that seems to back up what Hardison posted. Monahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05790649565429997126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-50753280484125258022016-07-14T10:10:34.220-04:002016-07-14T10:10:34.220-04:00Did I miss this part of people's analyses?
Th...Did I miss this part of people's analyses?<br /><br />The data are not on lethal force by race, they are in lethal force by race GIVEN that an individual has been stopped by the police.<br /><br />That right there is a huge difference. Is it possible that Incident Reports are written up in such a way tends to justify whatever interactions occurred? <br /><br />Isn't this one of the major reasons video "evidence" has become so important--i.e. look at all the times the video proves that officers outright lied in their reports (eg Laquan McDonald, Sandra Bland).Dogenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16734732193006940173noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-68751132942639812272016-07-13T20:55:56.428-04:002016-07-13T20:55:56.428-04:00Miraculous. Amazing what you can do by picking and...Miraculous. Amazing what you can do by picking and choosing among databases to confirm your preconceptions. Rajivhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13667685126282705505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-90495788183969480952016-07-13T20:39:46.213-04:002016-07-13T20:39:46.213-04:00Look at the Fryer data: women are 18% of the arres...Look at the Fryer data: women are 18% of the arrest pool, 4% of the shooting pool. I don't think this reflects anti-male bias but this is where your logic leads. In any case, since your mind is made up already there's no productive conversation to be had. Rajivhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13667685126282705505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-20458854665081240992016-07-13T20:29:42.704-04:002016-07-13T20:29:42.704-04:00There would be no gender bias since arrests of wom...There would be no gender bias since arrests of women for violent crime are minuscule. If there's any significant bias against blacks, it would have to show up in aggregate data. The opposite is the case. The bias goes the other way. African American police victimization rate is significantly lower than their participation in violent crime. <br />Krzyshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15794655390770135247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-65749575719073105912016-07-13T18:52:14.513-04:002016-07-13T18:52:14.513-04:00I was very surprised (indeed quite startled) to se...I was very surprised (indeed quite startled) to see tentative and location specific findings being described as startling. I think it was an invitation to irresponsible reporting, which is what we saw at least initially. Rajivhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13667685126282705505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-77746957614712821022016-07-13T18:50:03.904-04:002016-07-13T18:50:03.904-04:00Many things that seem obvious are actually quite w...Many things that seem obvious are actually quite wrong. By your reasoning (comparing arrests to shootings) there is significant gender bias against men in police shootings. You have to look at the nature of the interactions, especially if you're interested in the rates of innocents getting shot. But I don't think you're interested in thinking about this at all, since the answer is so obvious.Rajivhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13667685126282705505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-24017841949069169192016-07-13T18:46:36.940-04:002016-07-13T18:46:36.940-04:00Tried the link but it seems broken...Tried the link but it seems broken...Rajivhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13667685126282705505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-14724681754034795962016-07-13T12:50:38.138-04:002016-07-13T12:50:38.138-04:00I have just written a blog for Huffington Post on ...I have just written a blog for Huffington Post on this issue and I looked at the instances in which police killed UNARMED whites and blacks---the Washington Post of every police killing of civilians in the US in 2015----unarmed whites were a bit more likely to be depicted as "attacking" police than black ones. This suggests there is a higher bar to shoot whites and is consistent with the analysis above. Whites are more apt to have to attack to get shot. <br />https://blogger.huffingtonpost.com/tmp/10903644_p.htmlMilt Mankoffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16835279417711387010noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-55043332799044802112016-07-13T08:16:29.165-04:002016-07-13T08:16:29.165-04:00*held up**held up*africanboyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15492364829881486823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-88746313501871900382016-07-13T08:15:34.932-04:002016-07-13T08:15:34.932-04:00Thanks for clarifying! My initial thoughts on the ...Thanks for clarifying! My initial thoughts on the study was that the data did not support the conclusions/interpretations as reported in NYT. I wondered in particular if the claims of "startling" findings would have help up in peer review. I also wondered if it is customary in Economics to frame untested (i.e. non peer reviewed) conclusions in the media (or allow such framing). Many biomedical science journals (e.g. Nature, Science) place an embargo on media prior to peer review or publication. africanboyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15492364829881486823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-3500152554106373772016-07-13T06:18:31.616-04:002016-07-13T06:18:31.616-04:00The "significance" there refers to Hispa...The "significance" there refers to Hispanics, the black-white differences in the raw data are significant. But this doesn't mean much, without controlling for behavioral and contextual attributes of the encounters. Once controls are added, significance is lost. Rajivhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13667685126282705505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-68192717356789031122016-07-13T06:16:22.190-04:002016-07-13T06:16:22.190-04:00I'd like to get my hands on the data too, but ...I'd like to get my hands on the data too, but even then it would be difficult to replicate since the incident reports have been interpreted and coded my multiple individuals over a period of time. So one would need the incident reports also, or at least a random sample to see how this was done. Rajivhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13667685126282705505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-88173690786112762142016-07-13T03:10:57.992-04:002016-07-13T03:10:57.992-04:00Prof Sethi, can you please comment on the followin...Prof Sethi, can you please comment on the following sentence from the study, specifically on the matter of statistical insignificance? Does the fact that the reported data is statistically insignificant lend to your critique of overinterpretation?<br />"Blacks are 23.8 percent less likely to be shot by police, relative to whites. Hispanics are 8.5 percent less likely to be shot but the coefficient is statistically insignificant."africanboyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15492364829881486823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-43098089909233743882016-07-13T00:58:44.982-04:002016-07-13T00:58:44.982-04:00I find this study difficult it to believe. I would...I find this study difficult it to believe. I would want to see the raw data, the complete methodology and the stated objectives of the study. I lived in Houston. Edith from Abovehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03952019980965483705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-83732625253515427852016-07-12T23:44:45.529-04:002016-07-12T23:44:45.529-04:00Yes, lots of variation by location, this is a good...Yes, lots of variation by location, this is a good point.Rajivhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13667685126282705505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-25487579856358259512016-07-12T23:43:38.491-04:002016-07-12T23:43:38.491-04:00The arrest data is 18% female, the shooting data 4...The arrest data is 18% female, the shooting data 4% female. Does this mean the HPD discriminates against males? Not at all. The interactions are not qualitatively the same, or equally threatening to the officer on average. So you can't just make an inference from the raw data. Once he controls for behavioral and contextual factors, there is no statistically significant difference. Rajivhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13667685126282705505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-51571037935192981472016-07-12T23:18:33.834-04:002016-07-12T23:18:33.834-04:00I'm just a lowly undergraduate econ major who ...I'm just a lowly undergraduate econ major who has yet to take an upper-level methodology class, but doesn't the data indicate that the HPD discriminates against white suspects in situations where lethal force is used? That sounds really silly when I say it aloud, but I don't understand why he concludes racial disparities don't exist in use of lethal force given his data and analysis.<br />Clausewitzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13106065785045636148noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-81563984400564549512016-07-12T12:02:58.987-04:002016-07-12T12:02:58.987-04:00Harrison - Interesting point. A related one is tha...Harrison - Interesting point. A related one is that large cities like Houston tend to be more diverse, with police departments that are also more diverse, than smaller communities and suburbs. Their police officers are therefore more likely to be more trained, experienced in (and to have been evaluated on) their interactions with minorities. This can also influence the conclusions of analyses that are skewed toward statistics from larger cities. <br /><br />In this regard, it's notable that (if I recall correctly) the more apparently egregious, video recorded shootings of black men all took place in suburbs (the NYC choking incident being a notable exception). Cinclow20https://www.blogger.com/profile/07987666338249091704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4039434.post-28708831373779535212016-07-12T11:59:49.603-04:002016-07-12T11:59:49.603-04:00Important point... do you have a link for this?Important point... do you have a link for this?Rajivhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13667685126282705505noreply@blogger.com